While many prophecies in the Bible involve predicted future events, not all of them are meant to come true exactly as described.
(But wait…aren’t prophecies, by definition, supposed to be fulfilled in exactly the ways the prophets described?)
It’s important to keep in mind that “prophecy” is not synonymous with “prediction.” The word “prophecy” simply means a message from God, spoken to humans through humans.
Prophecies with specific predictions, especially those involving the whole of humanity, are meant to prepare people for significant future events. And those events will happen in complete alignment with how they’re described.
But there are different types of prophecies, and some of them are conditional.
Let’s look into what this means:
- Why some Bible prophecies don’t come true (and why that can actually be good!)
- Examples of conditional prophecies in the Bible
- How to tell the difference between conditional and unconditional prophecies
- What we can learn from conditional prophecies
First let’s fully define conditional prophecies and look at why they’re in the Bible to begin with.
Why some prophecies don’t come true as stated
Think of a conditional prophecy like an if-then statement. If these conditions are met, then this prophecy will be fulfilled. For example, when King Solomon was dedicating the temple, he prayed for God to fill it with His presence. That evening, the word of God came to Solomon:
“If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land” (2 Chronicles 7:14, NKJV).
This is a promise, or prophecy, of what God will do if His followers comply with the terms.
And while not every conditional prophecy is presented exactly in this “if-then” template, the key thing to remember is that God will always allow humans to exercise freedom of choice. And for several prophecies throughout the Bible, their fulfillment depends upon a group or individual’s response to God’s message.1
Sometimes the people needed a firm warning that if things didn’t change, certain consequences would follow. And in some cases, they would change and those consequences didn’t happen (or they were delayed).
Other times, a prophet would relay a blessing from God, showing what was in store for a person or a group if they stayed loyal to Him. And if that loyalty was willfully broken, then that blessing no longer applied.
Those messages are still prophecies since they are situations where “the word of the Lord” comes to a human prophet, and they relay that message.
But if things end up differently than originally prophesied, it doesn’t mean that the original prophecy wasn’t real, and it doesn’t make the prophet a false prophet.
God even explains this to Jeremiah directly:
“The instant I speak concerning a nation and concerning a kingdom, to pluck up, to pull down, and to destroy it, if that nation against whom I have spoken turns from its evil, I will relent of the disaster that I thought to bring upon it. And the instant I speak concerning a nation and concerning a kingdom, to build and to plant it, if it does evil in My sight so that it does not obey My voice, then I will relent concerning the good with which I said I would benefit it.” (Jeremiah 18:7-10, NKJV).
It makes sense. Who wouldn’t want a second chance from a loving God?
And on the other hand, would it really be right to keep blessing people who later neglect to recognize the power and goodness of the One who blesses?
If human beings change after hearing a prophet’s words, God is willing to work with them.
After all, Scripture tells us that God is patient with us, “not wishing that any should perish, but that all should reach repentance” (2 Peter 3:9, ESV).
The Bible has numerous verses about God’s mercy. So perhaps it isn’t very surprising that He’ll keep working with us as long as results are possible.
And to make sure we’re clear on what’s at stake, He has sent warnings, carefully detailing what happens when His love and guidance are rejected.
And if the message is effective and repentance sincere, the predicted consequences need not follow.
But do all conditional prophecies follow the same formula or pattern? Let’s look at some examples.
Examples of conditional prophecies in the Bible
There are several stories in the Bible that involve conditional prophecies—more than you might realize at first. We’ll look at a few of them here.
Jonah prophesies the destruction of Nineveh (Jonah 3:4-10)
This may be the most famous conditional prophecy in the Bible. And not only because God withheld the consequences He had Jonah proclaim, but because Jonah got upset about it!
God asked him to travel to Nineveh with a message: their wickedness had gotten out of control. Plus, they had ill will toward the Children of Israel.
So God was going to destroy them.
Jonah was reluctant to deliver this message to begin with, and even tried to run away from the job (Jonah 1:3). But after a series of tumultuous back-and-forth exchanges with God, a near shipwreck, a near drowning, and getting swallowed by a fish and spat out on the beach, Jonah finally went to Nineveh and did what he was asked (Jonah 1-2).
But he sure wasn’t expecting this prophecy to actually bring about a change in the people of Nineveh. They started praying and fasting. Their king even tore his robes and issued a decree:
“…everyone must call out earnestly to God. Each must turn from his evil ways and from his wrongdoing. Who knows? God may turn and relent; He may turn from His burning anger so that we will not perish” (Jonah 3:8-9, CSB).
And in the very next verse, we’re told that “God saw their actions…so God relented from the disaster He had threatened them with. And He did not do it” (Jonah 3:19, CSB).
Jonah didn’t like the fact that what he said to the masses didn’t happen as he explained it. He was more concerned about his reputation as a true prophet. But God confronted him, asking, “May I not care about the great city of Nineveh, which has more than a hundred twenty thousand people” (Jonah 4:11, CSB)? And while it’s too bad Jonah refused to see this from a loving God’s perspective, we can appreciate the rest of the story, where a conditional prophecy of God ended up changing the hearts of an entire nation.
Similar warnings from two prophets (Jeremiah 26 and Micah 3:12)
The prophet Jeremiah had a difficult job during a difficult time. God’s chosen people were being rebellious yet again, and he had to tell them that this was going to lead to their demise as a nation (Jeremiah 26:1-6).
But the people of Judah responded with fierce anger and accusations, saying Jeremiah deserved to be put to death for speaking against Jerusalem (verses 7-11). But he pleaded with them, “correct your ways and deeds, and obey the Lord your God so that He might relent concerning the disaster He had pronounced against you” (verse 13, CSB).
Fortunately, this is another case where these ominous words from God, through a prophet, inspired progress and even change, at least in some of the leaders of Judah.
“Then the officials and all the people told the priests and prophets, ‘This man doesn’t deserve the death sentence, for he has spoken to us in the name of the Lord our God’” (verse 16, CSB).
The “elders of the land” even spoke of a previous time in their history when a prophecy was conditional: when the prophet Micah said that Jerusalem would be reduced to ruins. But King Hezekiah took it as a wake-up call and “plead for the Lord’s favor,” and God relented “concerning the disaster He had pronounced against them” (verse 19, CSB).
They realized that ignoring Jeremiah’s message would be what would actually bring disaster upon them.
However, while Judah’s consequences were removed after King Hezekiah heeded the prophet’s warning, Judah under King Zedekiah waffled back and forth, despite further prophesying from Jeremiah. This cowardice and lack of faith led to the Babylonian captivity and the destruction of Jerusalem (Jeremiah 39).
Josiah’s death (2 Chronicles 34, 35)
This prophecy was set in motion when King Josiah ordered the temple to be repaired (2 Chronicles 34:8) and the high priest, Hilkiah, found the “book of the law of the Lord.” He read it to Josiah, who then tore his clothes when he realized how far the nation had strayed from Scripture (verses 14-19, CSB).
So he sought out the nearest prophet, Huldah, who indeed prophesied dire consequences for the people of Judah. But King Josiah, because he humbled himself and sought to change things, would not have to experience the consequences. He would instead die a peaceful death (verses 22-28).
Things looked good for Judah, for a while. Later on, King Neco of Egypt sent messengers to King Josiah to make peace with Judah—while proclaiming the name of God.
“What is the issue between you and me, king of Judah? I have not come against you today but am fighting another dynasty. God told me to hurry. Stop opposing God who is with me; don’t make Him destroy you” (2 Chronicles 35:21, CSB)!
King Josiah “did not listen to Neco’s words from the mouth of God” (verse 22, CSB). He instead disguised himself so he could still meet Egypt with a fight. And as he did so, he was shot by archers and soon died (2 Chronicles 25:20-26).
Not exactly the “peaceful” death that the prophet Huldah spoke of before. And that’s because this is yet another conditional prophecy. That message from God was based on Josiah’s choices at that time.
But later on, he intentionally went against a message from God. And the consequences of that decision quickly led to his death.
However, it’s important to note that King Josiah still didn’t experience the full consequences that were due to Judah for their rebelliousness against God. So most of Huldah’s prophecy was still fulfilled as spoken, even if the circumstances of King Josiah’s death could have been different.
God always allows for human free will to be fully exercised.
The Pharaoh’s choices and the plagues of Egypt (Exodus 5-12)
When God told Moses to help liberate the enslaved children of Israel, He sent him to Pharaoh to request that he allow Israel to travel to “the wilderness” to hold a festival for God.
“Who is the Lord, that I should obey His voice to let Israel go? I know not the Lord, neither will I let Israel go” (verse 2, NKJV).
Instead of cooperating, Pharaoh chose to resist. And in doing so, he was essentially mocking the God of Israel. He continued his power trip and tightened his rule over them.
But God told Moses not to give up, assuring him that “with a strong hand [Pharaoh] will let them go, and with a strong hand he will drive them out of his land” (Exodus 6:1, NKJV).
But Pharaoh kept refusing, and each time he did so, Moses would tell him what plagues would befall Egypt as a result of his defiance.
After nine plagues, the tenth refusal brought about the death of Pharaoh’s first-born son (as well as the first-born in all Egyptian families). It was only then that Pharaoh let the Hebrew slaves go.
While it’s a favorable outcome for Israel in this particular story, let’s take note of the “if-then” situation that Moses and Aaron presented to Pharaoh. If he had let Israel go at the first request, then none of the plagues would’ve happened. And even if he had agreed after the first or second plague, Egypt would have been spared several more rounds of miserable circumstances.
God said to Moses that Pharaoh would “drive them out of his land,” and he did. But how the prophecy played out was conditional upon Pharaoh’s responses.
More examples of conditional prophecies
Several more stories in the Bible involve conditional prophecy and roughly follow the same type of progression.
- Priesthood status is removed from Eli’s family (1 Samuel 2:20-34). God promised the high priest Eli that his household would continue to be priests of God for generations. But Eli was not upholding the priorities a high priest should, and a prophet approached him with another message, in which God spelled out why things were changing: “…I did say that your family and your forefathers’ family would walk before me forever. But now, this is the Lord’s declaration, ‘no longer!’ For those who honor me I will honor, but those who despise Me will be disgraced’” (verse 30, CSB).
- A generation of Israelites doesn’t get to see the “Promised Land.” In Exodus 6:8, the Israelites are told that they’ll be brought to the land God reserved for their ancestors. But after numerous bouts of defiant, rebellious behavior, God had to deliver them a different message: “I swear that none of you will enter the land I promised to settle you in, except Caleb…and Joshua…” (Numbers 14:30, CSB). Their children would get to see Canaan (verse 31), but their behavior demonstrated that they weren’t ready for this gift from God.
- Elijah prophesies disaster for King Ahab, saying to him, “you devoted yourself to do what is evil in the Lord’s sight (1 Kings 21:20, CSB). And similar to the Jonah-Nineveh situation, Ahab completely humbled himself before God. So God tells Elijah, “I will not bring the disaster during his lifetime, because he has humbled himself before me” (1 Kings 21:29, CSB).
- Isaiah announces to King Hezekiah that he would die from his illness, so he should set his affairs in order. But when Hezekiah prayed to God and pleaded for longer life, God tells Isaiah to turn right back around and inform Hezekiah that He heard his prayer, and 15 years will be added to his life (2 Kings 20:1-6).
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How can we tell if a prophecy is conditional or unconditional?
So if some prophecies can change while others are presented as absolute, how can we tell which is which? There are many types of biblical prophecies, but we’ll look at what characteristics would make a prophecy either absolute or conditional.
Characteristics of absolute prophecies
When prophecies have to do with global events, humanity as a whole, or significant activities of supernatural forces (such as the behavior of the devil and his angels, or of God Himself), it’s much more likely to be an unconditional, predictive prophecy.
While many of these types of prophecies include a lot of symbolism and metaphor, they’re still meant to come to pass in a way that completely aligns with the words presented—even if we don’t know the exact people/places/things that each part symbolizes until the prophesied events are upon us.
Absolute prophecies have to do with events that are “bigger” than us.
And they often predict significant events that lead toward an ultimate event, such as the birth of the Messiah or the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. And a whole lot of unconditional prophecy addresses the End Times, like what we find in the books of Daniel and Revelation.
Absolute prophecies have to do with God’s plan of salvation and the Great Controversy.
And because of the broader nature of events that are part of absolute prophecies, they are not dependent on the actions of one or a few humans. This is how they stay absolute without infringing upon our God-given gift of free will.
For example, perhaps the most famous absolute or unconditional prophecy is the birth of Jesus as a human on earth. The prophet Isaiah predicted:
“Behold, the virgin shall conceive and bear a Son, and shall call His name Immanuel” (Isaiah 7:14, NKJV).
This event was prophesied to happen, and nothing could change it.
But what if Mary said no? What if Joseph refused?
Well, then Jesus would have had different parents.
But He still would have been born a human, lived among us, healed the sick, preached the Gospel, and died on the Cross so we could experience salvation and redemption.
People can always accept or reject their chosen roles in God’s plan, but His plan will always be carried out, no matter what.
So let’s recap. A prophecy is considered to be absolute if:
- It’s not dependent on human behavior in order to be fulfilled
- It affects humanity as a whole, rather than the lives of one person or one group of people
- It has to do with the actions of those who aren’t human, such as God, angels, the devil, etc.
Characteristics of conditional prophecies
In contrast to the all-encompassing nature of absolute biblical prophecy, conditional prophecies are usually presented as consequences of human decisions or actions—whether positive or negative.
However, it’s true that not all conditional prophecies are written as direct “if-then” statements.
So how can we tell if a prophecy is conditional?
By looking at the reasoning behind the prophecy and who it affects.
Looking again at the story of Jonah and Nineveh, God didn’t tell Jonah to say anything about the Ninevites changing their ways so they can avoid their impending doom (Jonah 3:4). In fact, their king even admitted that he didn’t know if it was possible to escape their depressing fate (verses 8-9).
Even so, all of Nineveh collectively agreed to put their old ways behind them, even if it wouldn’t save them from disaster.
We can only speculate, but perhaps that’s part of the reasoning behind God ultimately having mercy on them (at least at this point in history). Because if they changed their ways even if it wouldn’t save them, that shows sincere repentance.
Whatever God’s superior reasoning may be, the point is that whether or not conditions are laid out specifically, anything relying on the actions of human beings is subject to change because of free will and our fallen nature.
So a prophecy is most likely to be conditional if:
- The prophecy is given because of human behavior (such as blessing good behavior or bringing about negative consequences of harmful behavior)
- The prophecy’s fulfillment could depend on future human behavior
- The “area of effect” is relatively small (i.e., the prophesied events only affect one person or one nation, rather than humanity in general)
What’s the purpose of conditional prophecies? What can we learn from them?
When it comes to our Christian walk, conditional prophecies remind us of what’s possible and what’s at stake. We see what God is willing to give us when we trust Him with our hearts, and what consequences can befall us when we neglect to follow His divine wisdom and guidance.
And we see how our choices can make such a big difference.
Freedom of choice is a major part of how humans are created in the image of God. So our ability to make our own decisions is a significant theme in the Bible, from beginning to end. It’s what set the plan of salvation in motion (Genesis 2, 3), and it’s what will determine each of our individual results from that plan (John 3:16).
“Behold, I stand at the door and knock. If anyone hears My voice and opens the door, I will come in to him and dine with him, and he with Me” (Revelation 3:20, NKJV).
God’s Holy Spirit wants to draw close to us. He knows that He has the key to true happiness and eternal life. Yet, the choice is ours. God can save us no matter what our past has been, and He has an amazing future planned for every person.
Conditional prophecies also show us that God keeps His promises, but sometimes our actions or decisions can affect our ability or readiness to receive those promises. And in every case, God is acting in our best interest.
Think about it. If God didn’t give the people of Nineveh a second chance, a whole nation would have been destroyed that could have changed their hearts and lived the remainder of their lives bringing glory to God.
And if God still blessed those who ended up neglecting His guidance, it would reinforce detrimental behavior, forego an important learning opportunity, and it would look like favoritism.
But God is always reliable, and we can have faith that He will carry out His promises. We just have to remember that we have our own part to play in the fulfillment of those promises in our own lives.